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Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

CHECKANDCHALLENGE is a lightly raced and improving three-year-old who looks well up to making his mark in Group 3 company. Back on the Flat, Make My Day ran a fine second to Super Superjack at Ascot in May before again taking the silver medal behind Black Kalanisi at Goodwood the following month. On both occasions, the six-year-old was strong at the finish over two miles and things didn’t go to plan when my selection returned 13 th of 19 – Reshoun was ahead in fifth – in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last month. In the Oaks, only eight runners go to post in one of the weakest runnings of the Classic I can remember.

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We do also display win and place percentages but, in truth, these are the equivalent of answering the question, “What time is it?”, with “Tuesday afternoon”. Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year. That seemed to signal a changing of the guard, an impression that recently turning ten has done nothing to dispel. The substance of his Punchestown second to Clan Des Obeaux and his annual trot around Tramore on New Year’s Day has corroborated the perception of this brilliant fellow yielding just a touch to the passage of time. For all that iffing and butting, A Plus Tard is the right favourite and almost certain to offer a run for the pennies.

50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle: Marlborough’s preview and tips

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

A small bet on a race can be a thrilling way to enjoy the action. While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules. That is why they have been the world’s favourite betting medium for hundreds of year – you really can study the form (see below) and use it to pick winners. Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. He’s proven on softer ground and will get this race run to suit with plenty of competition for the lead. Danny Tudhope is a brilliant hold up rider and he looks a worthy favourite.

  • Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst.
  • If you want to go a little deeper, however, you can click on the horse’s name to access its profile page, which will show you past performances.
  • The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f.
  • It was one of those races where I can’t remember one going so well since Alborada got the pacemaker and High-Rise didn’t (in the 1999 Champion Stakes).
  • Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP).
  • By exploring tips from a range of experts, punters can gain a well-rounded view of the racing landscape, maximising their chances of selecting winning bets.
  • I was very pleased that I tipped three on Tuesday, including Lizzie Kelly on Coo Star Sivola at 5-1.

If Altior wins the Queen Mother

If you’re John Butler or Mick Appleby – with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft – you don’t have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually. He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career. He has a huge career ahead of him and the question now is, does he go chasing, or does he remain over hurdles with a route towards the 2022 Champion hurdle.

  • He will appreciate a stamina test; a good pace and soft ground and I think he will get it here.
  • The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day.
  • If it perhaps lacks a little star quality this year – there can’t be a Shishkin/Altior/Douvan every time – it remains competitive from a betting perspective.
  • The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
  • Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
  • Likely some, but probably not a huge amount is my best guess.

Warm Spell

A race most remembered for Badsworth Boy’s hat-trick of victories from 1982, a big win for this author with Azertyuiop in 2004, Master Minded’s double and the thrilling return of Sprinter Sacre two years ago. The King of May ran a cracker on his first run in this country when a staying on third in a hot race at Musselburgh and can take advantage of a decent mark, especially as this stiffer track will suit. Eragon De Chanay makes a quick reappearance after scooting up at Sandown last Saturday and would assuredly have had more than a 5lb penalty is the Handicapper had been in possession of that form when framing these weights. Fakenham had to abandon their meeting a few weeks ago after the opening race due to unsafe ground, they return to action on Wednesday with extensive course changes. We also have the season finale meeting at Newton Abbot, another who have experienced past problems with the conditions. The current going is Heavy which should improve given the favourable forecast.

Tips & Insights

He’s highly respected but not as much as Elliott’s dominance – as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he’s also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I’ve been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life.

Royal Ascot 2024 day one review & replays Rosallion wins St James’s Palace Stakes

Faivoir was pulled-up that day and has already proved the form all wrong with a good second behind Gin Coco, while the well-held eighth Rare Middleton has since won by five lengths doing handstands off just 2lb lower at Doncaster. With 59 racecourses in Britain and 26 in Ireland, you’re almost certainly not far away from a local track, and tickets for regular meetings (when spectators are allowed) can often be as low as £10. They are amazing, beautiful, unpredictable and so clever. They are lean, mean, powerful machines, athletes that can get to 60 kilometres an hour from a standing start in just five strides. We have built the fastest cars and bikes but the racehorse is pure nature. Every horse has his or her own character and personality.

More Horse Racing Tips

Gordon also has Braeside, whose two career wins have come on heavy ground, as Profiler handily highlights. He’s slow enough for the old four-miler but probably not quick enough for this classier, shorter iteration of the race. This is a really tricky race with if’s and but’s about most of them. In the absence of a reliable option, I’ll take a chance on Heaven Help Us being trained for the day in what seem to be her favoured conditions.

Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results

Asfoora joins Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009) and Nature Strip (2022) on the Australian roll of honour in what was formerly the King’s Stand Stakes. The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance. “The Wolferton was the alternative but it’s on the round course and you need a lot more racing luck on there. As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year. “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out. He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.

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Can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. Back a horse by clicking their odds – and check out our man’s Arc de Triomphe ante-post tips with Member’s Enclosure. Fourthly, beware Paul Nicholls outside of handicap hurdles, and Charlie Longsdon and Noel Meade universally. Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases. But we all know that there’s nothing really of use in this section. The handicap chases are a crap shoot and, in negative elimination factor terms, should be avoided at all costs.

  • At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet.
  • Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations.
  • 1m 7f  of Grade 1 jump racing coming up – can anyone stop the highly-rated Altior?
  • Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance.

Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30

Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.

Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.

  • Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved.
  • We do also display win and place percentages but, in truth, these are the equivalent of answering the question, “What time is it?”, with “Tuesday afternoon”.
  • They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing.
  • State Man last year and this year’s Arkle 3rd Saint Roi 2 years ago.
  • For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito.
  • In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners.
  • Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning to this circuit.
  • Cross-referencing with some of the more well-established bookies will help to confirm that you are indeed getting a good deal for your money’s worth.

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However, with the benefit of expert insight, or even just a second pair of eyes, you can more readily identify the best betting options. The leading trainer in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race five times with those five winners coming from Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Ramius (2012), Brando (2016) and Bielsa (2021). Bolts Up Daily Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Ayr Gold Cup are Richard Fahey (2 wins), David O’Meara (2 wins) and Andrew Balding (2 wins). Those mythical beasts, the favourite backers, are often “on good terms with themselves” – as the vernacular of the lazy studio pundit hackneys – because, well, because the favourite wins more often than any other market rank.

First race on the card is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

If you think that the odds might shift and change before the start of the race, you could consider opting for the starting price. Let’s say that we wish to place a bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup through William Hill horse racing. First, you need to sign up and make an account if you have not already. Then, you head to the horse racing section and find the race that you want to bet on. As a user on a new site, you might be able to take advantage of some promotions they could have put together to celebrate their launch. For example, you might be able to claim free bets up to a certain amount across specific races as a new user at the site.

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

You can also see the odds currently on offer and some of the ones that have been offered previously. Always keep an eye on any new sites that might be launching, as they can truly offer you some great betting experiences. However, you also need to make sure that you are getting good odds alongside that. Cross-referencing with some of the more well-established bookies will help to confirm that you are indeed getting a good deal for your money’s worth. Never opt for poor odds simply because you have a deal to use – there is always going to be something better out there. Those who are new to the world of horse racing might find that there is a lot of terminology that gets thrown about here.

Lingfield Tips

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

Over the course of his first 15 months (Jan 21 to March 22), he performed so well that we setup a Free Tipster service for SBC members to follow. Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born –  a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation. No Foto Needed secured 18.84% of the vote, beating some well respected and high profile services in the process.

  • POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects.
  • Eragon De Chanay makes a quick reappearance after scooting up at Sandown last Saturday and would assuredly have had more than a 5lb penalty is the Handicapper had been in possession of that form when framing these weights.
  • For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this.
  • Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners.

Queen Mother Champion Chase full result

This includes the Kiplingcotes Derby – the oldest horse race that we can still enjoy today – which was first run in 1519. A complete revelation since turning to point to points, ROCKY’S HOWYA beat Chatham Street Lad by 45 lengths last time out. He has won by a combined 122 lengths in his 5 point to point starts and if the form holds up here, he will be very hard to beat and it’s hard to see him out of the frame.

That fast finishing effort was six races ago, on a different track and under what is presumed to be a different tempo to today’s race. The bias is less extreme but the linearity remains, with front-runners still well favoured over prominent racers, and the later running styles about even behind those further forward. On firm ground, we see a similar leap from maiden on that terrain to those with one or two wins.

The historic Royal Artillery Gold Cup is restricted to military amateur riders. Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.

Interesting, almost like they found improvement for the atmosphere of the Festival… In his sole chase effort before the last day fall, Haut En Couleurs had easily accounted for Gentleman De Mee and Mt Leinster, the former hacking up twice since, most recently in Grade 3 company at odds of 1/5. It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.

Horse racing tips: Gary Moore’s charge can gain revenge after falling last time out

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with. Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.

English Spirit

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

Well, why aren’t they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.

How to place a bet on the Racing Post app

California Gem disappointed in fourth that afternoon but made amends in a Ripon maiden 12 days later, defeating Boom Boom Pow by three-quarters of a length. But the son of Vadamos came out on top that day, and has repeated the feat in one-mile contests on three of his six subsequent starts. After third placings at Pontefract and Newmarket in April, Eilean Dubh was back in business at Hamilton Park the following month and followed up in a big field at York a fortnight later.

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He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat. On that evidence, he could well be above average, in which case he should be capable of giving away the weight. The Championship race of the day was remarkably won by another mare making it 2-0 to the girls so far. She really Bolts Up Daily relished the jumping test, and travelled so well behind the leading bunch throughout. Her jumping was immaculate and she managed to avoid all of the hustle and bustle that was happening after the last to catch Chacun pour soi up the home straight. Following this Monkfish stepped up and won the Brown Advisory Chase without needing to be at his best to do so.

Mark Lawrenson

Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It. If they all stand up it’s hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Altior, late injury scare or not, is definitely the one to beat.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 3 👇🏼

  • That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event.
  • O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects.
  • What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers).
  • Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad.
  • This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used.
  • This free service ran from March 2022 to August 2022 and was a resounding success, making a 138 point profit at 22.79% ROI over the course of 406 bets.

The two wins were both achieved by the same horse, Buena Vista, in the same race, the Pertemps Final. Willie Mullins is the dominant player in this sphere over the last decade, his fifteen winners almost double that of the next man (Nicky Henderson has eight). No other trainer has more than two novice G1 wins in the past decade, excluding as we are the Bumper and Triumph Hurdle. The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us and soon we’ll be faced with the unenviable – though highly enjoyable – task of trying to find winners in 28 deeply competitive races. Many sensible players will focus on a subset of the full four-day card but, regardless of your plan of attack, there are some rules of thumb worth keeping in mind.

Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Racing Previews & Betting Tips

Tom Queally’s mount still has the potential for better and is worth another go at this marathon trip. Reshoun returned to winning form at Newbury 13 days ago and is feared, along with stablemate Hydroplane and last year’s runner-up Withhold. Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread. We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr. Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.

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By diving deeper into these resources, you can gain a better understanding of the form and trends in horse racing, allowing you to make more informed wagers. The tips offered by our platform have proven to be instrumental in helping customers make well-informed decisions when placing bets, leading to more wins. Accessible horse racing tips are what most punters are looking for.

Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31

  • Last year’s impressive winner Inspiral is a class act but it’s hard to have any confidence in her given she has blown the start on her last three runs.
  • It all started with a new superstar in the name of Bob Olinger, who absolutely bolted up in the Ballymore novices hurdle to become the first of the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners.
  • Like the favourite, she brings Festival-winning form to the party and her form string at this intermediate distance is 12.
  • With a longer-term record dating back to January 2021 of a similar level, he is undoubtedly a true expert to listen to when looking for value bets for each day’s racing.
  • He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time.
  • Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.

William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014). Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Thunderball (2012) and Aberama Gold (2020). As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers. And there are various other filtering options – for instance, I’m looking at the Course 5 Year Form view here, which tells me Harry Fry has run two handicap debutants at Plumpton since 19th December 2017.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips

His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time). He’s got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he’s jumped very well in the main. Horse racing in the UK is hotly watched by numerous parties, and since events happen all year round it is definitely worth looking into if you want to place a few bets.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼

There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips. He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights. The only place to get Templegate’s tips first – and at the best prices – is by joining Sun Racing’s brilliant Members Enclosure.

Bolts Up Daily exclusive UK & Irish Horse Racing Tips

Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds. Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year’s Irish cohort are not as good as normal?

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Jockey Statistics

  • We head to Beverley on Tuesday afternoon and GOLDEN WAR can open his account.
  • That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon).
  • The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses.
  • Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge.
  • When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him.
  • Hannon has not been shy in making it known how highly he regards his colt, although he could have been forgiven if his confidence had been slightly dented when he was beaten by Notable Speech at Newmarket.
  • Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.
  • Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here.

Over the course of his first 15 months (Jan 21 to March 22), he performed so well that we setup a Free Tipster service for SBC members to follow. Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born –  a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation. No Foto Needed secured 18.84% of the vote, beating some well respected and high profile services in the process.

Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever.

  • IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50.
  • Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed.
  • Like all humans, trainers are creatures of habit, so get to know theirs.
  • That is not, of course, because he can’t or won’t win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently.
  • Although it’s only a small chink in his profile it does give us some hope that we can get one of these Mullins hotpots beaten.
  • Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to.

The trainers’ championships

The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.

Paddy Power is the winner in terms of live streaming, with Betfair a close second, for both the range and quality of their live streams. Our AI articles are NOT written by a real person and are provided for entertainment only. They may contain content which is inaccurate but we are hoping our AI bot, Rose, will become better over time. The AI category is the ONLY section of JuiceStorm.com that has zero human input. BetTrader from RacingTraders.co.uk was the 1st application for Betfair & introduced the ladder UI.

Cheltenham Festival 2021: 7 NRNB ‘Free Hits’

Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).

Make 20/1 your cutoff in all-age handicap hurdles, and beware the shortie. This time, 84 horses have worn them without a win, and just six places. Conversely, 11 of the 84 blinkered horses (one also wearing a hood) made the frame, and four won. Two of the 45 hood wearers also won, another eight placing; while the visor went 0 from 21, no places. The fairer sex have recorded just one placed effort from 27 starters in the ten year review period. That 3.7% place strike rate (and 0% win rate) compares with a 16.4% place rate for the boys.

Supported by a valuable card at Ascot and a return to Ayr. That quality continues on Sunday with a good card at Carlisle containing two Listed races and we also have Huntingdon. ‘The flat season draws towards its conclusion and the number of jumps fixtures increases for the week ahead. After a largely wet October we have a dry and mild spell forecast for most areas and the changing going conditions could have an important part to play. Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.